Necessity and adversity driving a renewed approach to European enlargement

Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the increase in Russian hostile activities targeting European countries, the enlargement process has become a key element of European security policy. The EU’s future accessions will dramatically shape its eastern and south-eastern neighbourhood, and will reinforce its capacity to act in a contested world, reflecting its geographic and economic weight, and its role as a credible geopolitical player. The Western Balkans, Ukraine and Moldova sit at the centre of this test.

Delays create space for external actors, including Russia and China, to exploit uncertainty and undermine institutional resilience through energy dependence, targeted disinformation campaigns and public frustration. By contrast, progress can strengthen democratic resilience through closer alignment of strategic infrastructure with the EU’s foreign and security policy.

However, enlargement will only contribute to security if it remains credible, rules-based and politically supported. Candidate countries must sustain reform efforts and make clear strategic choices. At the same time, EU member states must ensure that the Union can prepare for future enlargements while preserving its capacity to take decisions and act effectively.

Key questions include:

• What security gains can be achieved prior to membership through cooperation in energy, infrastructure, markets and policy alignment?
• How can the EU keep accession credible while responding to heightened geopolitical
  urgency?

Enlargement will test the EU as much as it tests candidate countries. A Union of 35 or more members would carry greater political, economic and strategic weight, but it would also face more complex decision-making on voting rules, budget allocations, institutional balance and democratic accountability. The EU cannot request candidate countries to reform while delaying its own preparations; in light of the upcoming Multiannual Financial Framework, several questions relate to the adaptation of programmes on cohesion, agriculture, infrastructure, research, defence and more, while other important political negotiations will be required to address the internal decision-making process and the role of European institutions.

Key questions include:

• Which EU policies and programmes will face the most significant trade-offs in an
  enlarged Union?
• How can internal reform strengthen the credibility of enlargement for both member states and candidate countries?

Renewed approaches to the enlargement process have gained substantial momentum, with political leaders across European and candidate countries circulating various options to make progress, such as merit-based access to the European Single Market, or the consideration of an “associate membership status”. This momentum is a signal that the EU cannot afford another decade of stalled enlargement, and that progress must lead to tangible and visible results for citizens.

Gradual accession can help bridge the gap between current political urgency and the long path to full membership, while still being focused on a merit-based approach and with conditionality as the main insurance mechanism. In this renewed approach to enlargement, policy should be regional in focus, and should accelerate collaboration on key infrastructure such as education and health systems, the financial sector, and create the opportunities for better integrated markets.

Key questions include:

• How can gradual accession contribute to revitalising the enlargement process?
• In which areas could reforms and integration deliver tangible benefits for citizens in candidate countries?

Economic convergence remains a cornerstone of the enlargement process. The shifting
geopolitical environment and broader regional conflicts in the Middle East and global
disruptions are creating inflationary pressures and significant uncertainty for growth forecasts. Against the risk of slower growth and weakening pace of convergence, reform implementation, stronger institutional capacity, greater predictability and enhanced policy stability should remain priorities for candidate countries seeking to attract investment and achieve deeper integration with the Union. Candidate countries, which already hold solid economic ties with the EU, can take advantage of the renewed impetus in the enlargement process to mobilise public and private finance, deepen regional cooperation and make growth more visible to citizens by unlocking the full potential of their human capital, and improving the quality of public services.

Key questions include:

• How can the private sector, international financial institutions and EU partners
  collaborate more effectively to turn ambition into action?
• What reforms are required to improve stability and predictability in candidate
  countries?
• What is the future role of the Growth Plan in EU-candidate country cooperation?

While the second energy shock of the decade affects citizens and businesses across the continent, candidate countries face the task of cutting dependence on vulnerable fossil fuel routes, modernising ageing energy systems and preparing for a cleaner industrial future. Investment in grids, cross-border interconnectors, renewable energy projects, storage, energy efficiency and cleaner transport corridors can strengthen regional resilience and connect the region more closely to the EU market.

The green transition should be treated as an investment agenda, not only as a compliance exercise. Solar, wind, critical raw materials, circular economy projects and clean industrial value chains can create jobs, attract capital and support Europe’s wider competitiveness. To maximise these opportunities, stronger regional planning, greater transparency and investment in skills for the new industries will be essential preconditions to ensure that innovation supports sustainable development.

Key questions include:

• How can the green transition create jobs, investment and industrial opportunities in candidate countries?
• What concrete opportunities arise from the renewed momentum in the enlargement process?

Rule of law reform is central to enlargement because it shapes trust in every part of public life. Citizens need courts, prosecutors, police and public institutions that act fairly, quickly and without political pressure. Businesses need predictable rules, secure contracts and transparent procurement. Civil society and independent media need space to expose abuse and defend rights. Candidate countries have adopted many laws and strategies, but the harder test is implementation. Reforms only stick when institutions have the resources, skills and independence to apply them, and when corruption is investigated and sanctioned regardless of political rank or personal connections. Training judges and prosecutors, protecting them from pressure, supporting watchdog organisations and using EU tools more effectively can help close the gap between formal alignment and real change.

Key questions include:

• How can candidate countries move from legislative reforms to consistent implementation?
• What measures are needed to protect judges, prosecutors, media and civil society
  from political pressure?

Demographic change is a reality across the Western Balkans. Ageing populations, youth emigration and growing labour shortages are affecting sectors such as healthcare, construction, transport, tourism and telecommunications. These trends weaken growth, strain public services and reduce the talent base needed for economic convergence with the EU. Demographic change and labour mobility are a central element of a Renewed Social Contract. Countries in the region need education systems that match modern labour markets, stronger vocational training, digital and green skills, better childcare and clearer pathways for women and young people into employment. In addition, greater attention must also be paid to the challenge of brain drain, with efforts to ensure that labour mobility supports knowledge transfer, investment and return opportunities.

Key questions include:

• Which skills will be most critical for modern, green and digital labour markets?
• How can labour mobility support enlargement without weakening local economies
  and public services?