Enlargement Summit 2026

Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the increase in Russian hostile activities targeting European countries, the enlargement process has become a key element of European security policy. The EU’s future accessions will dramatically shape its eastern and south-eastern neighbourhood, and will reinforce its capacity to act in a contested world, reflecting its geographic and economic weight, and its role as a credible geopolitical player. The Western Balkans, Ukraine and Moldova sit at the centre of this test.

Delays create space for external actors, including Russia and China, to exploit uncertainty and undermine institutional resilience through energy dependence, targeted disinformation campaigns and public frustration. By contrast, progress can strengthen democratic resilience through closer alignment of strategic infrastructure with the EU’s foreign and security policy. For this reason, this political moment is a test of Europe’s capacity to clarify its position towards the Western Balkan countries and to define a clear vision for the position of Ukraine and Moldova.

As countries like Montenegro and Albania move ever closer to the European Union and the drafting of Montenegro’s Accession Treaty has begun, there is the opportunity to transform this renewed momentum by ensuring the process remains politically credible, rules-based and politically supported. Candidate countries must sustain reform efforts and make clear strategic choices. At the same time, EU member states must also work to make sure they can do their part in reaching the final agreement with the candidate countries, as the process of ratification will also demand leadership from European policymakers.

Key questions include:

• What security gains can be achieved prior to membership through cooperation in energy, infrastructure, markets and policy alignment?
• How can the EU keep accession credible while responding to heightened geopolitical urgency?

Enlargement will test the EU as much as it tests candidate countries. A Union of 35 or more members would carry greater political, economic and strategic weight, but it would also face more complex decision-making on voting rules, budget allocations, institutional balance and democratic accountability. The EU cannot request candidate countries to reform while delaying its own preparations; in light of the upcoming Multiannual Financial Framework, several questions relate to the adaptation of programmes on cohesion, agriculture, infrastructure, research, defence and more, while other important political negotiations will be required to address the internal decision-making process and the role of European institutions.

As the Western Balkans work through complex reforms and navigate a shifting geopolitical landscape, a strong sense of trust is critical to advancing stability and integration – whether between citizens and institutions, among neighbouring countries, or with the EU and its member states.

Parliaments have a central role to play in this process. As the cornerstone of democratic governance, they are key to ensuring transparency, accountability and inclusive political dialogue. Strengthening parliamentary cooperation – both within the region and with EU counterparts – can help resolve historical disputes, enhance oversight of reforms and promote a shared vision of the future.

Key questions include:

• Which EU policies and programmes will face the most significant trade-offs in an enlarged Union?
• How can internal reform strengthen the credibility of enlargement for both member states and candidate countries?

Renewed approaches to the enlargement process have gained substantial momentum, with political leaders across European and candidate countries circulating various options to make progress, such as merit-based access to the European Single Market, or the consideration of an “associate membership status”. This momentum is a signal that the EU cannot afford another decade of stalled enlargement, and that progress must lead to tangible and visible results for citizens.

Gradual accession can help bridge the gap between current political urgency and the long path to full membership, while still being focused on a merit-based approach and with conditionality as the main insurance mechanism. In this renewed approach to enlargement, policy should be regional in focus, and should accelerate collaboration on key infrastructure such as education and health systems, the financial sector, and create the opportunities for better integrated markets.

Key questions include:

• How can gradual accession contribute to revitalising the enlargement process?
• In which areas could reforms and integration deliver tangible benefits for citizens in candidate countries?

The twin green and digital transitions represent an important opportunity for growth in the candidate countries. Digital connectivity and cyber-resilient infrastructure are central to security, service continuity and faster integration in the European market. At the same time, candidate countries face the task of cutting dependence on vulnerable fossil fuel routes, modernising ageing energy systems and preparing for a cleaner industrial future as continued energy-price volatility and security-of-supply pressures affect citizens and businesses. Investment in grids, cross-border interconnectors, renewable energy projects, storage, energy efficiency and cleaner transport corridors can strengthen both energy and digital regional ambitions and resilience.

The green and digital transitions should be treated as an investment agenda, not only as a compliance exercise. Solar, wind, circular economy projects and clean industrial value chains can create jobs, attract capital and support Europe’s wider competitiveness. Critical raw-materials projects can also contribute, provided that they meet robust environmental and social safeguards and generate local value and community benefits. Continued deployment of high-speed broadband, and modernising network infrastructure can help maximise these opportunities. Stronger regional planning, greater transparency and investment in skills for the new industries will be essential preconditions to ensure that innovation supports sustainable development.

Key questions include:

• How can the green and digital transitions create jobs, investment and industrial opportunities in candidate countries?
• What concrete opportunities arise from the renewed momentum in the enlargement process?

Economic convergence remains a cornerstone of the enlargement process. The shifting geopolitical environment and broader regional conflicts in the Middle East and global disruptions are creating inflationary pressures and significant uncertainty for growth forecasts. Against the risk of slower growth and weakening pace of convergence, reform implementation, stronger institutional capacity, greater predictability and enhanced policy stability should remain priorities for candidate countries seeking to attract investment and achieve deeper integration with the Union.

More than two years after the entry into force of the Reform and Growth Facility for the Western Balkans, the Commission’s latest verified figures should be cited with a clear cut-off date and should distinguish pre-financing, amounts approved, amounts released and regular performance-based payments. The Facility supports fundamental and socio-economic reforms as well as investments in connectivity, competitiveness, the green and digital transitions, and human capital. The Facility combines pre-financing with payments linked to the fulfilment of reform conditions; the amounts released to date represent only a fraction of its total allocation.For this reason, it will be important for all the candidate countries to adapt to this new system to minimise unused funds and ensure continued and closer economic and reform cooperation with the Union.

Candidate countries, which already hold solid economic ties with the EU, can take advantage of the renewed impetus in the enlargement process to mobilise public and private finance, deepen regional cooperation and make growth more visible to citizens by unlocking the full potential of their human capital, and improving the quality of public services.

Key questions include:

• How can the private sector, international financial institutions and EU partners collaborate more effectively to turn ambition into action?
• What reforms are required to improve stability and predictability in candidate countries?
• How can the Growth Plan strengthen project preparation and implementation capacity, particularly at regional and municipal level, and how should its success be measured beyond amounts disbursed?

Rule of law reform is central to enlargement because it shapes trust in every part of public life. Citizens need courts, prosecutors, police and public institutions that act fairly, quickly and without political pressure. Businesses need predictable rules, secure contracts and transparent procurement. Civil society and independent media need space to expose abuse and defend rights. Candidate countries have adopted many laws and strategies, but the harder test is implementation. Reforms only stick when institutions have the resources, skills and independence to apply them, and when corruption is investigated and sanctioned regardless of political rank or personal connections. Training judges and prosecutors, protecting them from pressure, supporting watchdog organisations and using EU tools more effectively can help close the gap between formal alignment and real change.

Key questions include:

• How can candidate countries move from legislative reforms to consistent implementation?
• What measures are needed to protect judges, prosecutors, media and civil society from political pressure?

Demographic change is a reality across the Western Balkans. Ageing populations, youth emigration and growing labour shortages are affecting sectors such as healthcare, construction, transport, tourism and telecommunications. These trends weaken growth, strain public services and reduce the talent base needed for economic convergence with the EU. Demographic change and labour mobility are a central element of a Renewed Social Contract. Countries in the region need education systems that match modern labour markets, stronger vocational training, digital and green skills, better childcare and clearer pathways for women and young people into employment. In addition, greater attention must also be paid to the challenge of brain drain, with efforts to ensure that labour mobility supports knowledge transfer, investment and return opportunities.

Key questions include:

• Which skills will be most critical for modern, green and digital labour markets?
• How can labour mobility support enlargement without weakening local economies and public services?

The Enlargement process is now a core question for the future of Europe and will require political leadership to move from the renewed momentum to concrete progress towards membership. For candidate countries, credibility depends on clear conditions that are applied consistently, and on reforms being recognised when they are delivered. At the same, it is equally important for the Union to prepare itself for enlargement by addressing the impact on its decision-making, budget, common policies and institutional capacity. Failure to move forward would carry consequences for the whole continent, as prolonged uncertainty weakens public trust, feeds political frustration and gives external actors greater room to exploit divisions. As candidate countries continue their path towards accession, the Union will need to provide answers to some of the harder and more political questions on enlargement.

Key questions include:

• What political decisions must the EU take now to turn renewed momentum into progress towards membership?
• How can the EU keep enlargement credible by applying conditions consistently and rewarding reforms when they are delivered?