NATO’s fragile future under the spotlight: A preview of the upcoming Ankara Summit

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Peace, Security & Defence

30Jun2026

starts 17:00

ends 18:00

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The upcoming NATO Summit in Ankara will take place at a particularly fragile moment for the Alliance. Trump’s second term have revived long-standing concerns about Washington’s commitment to NATO, with renewed pressure on burden-sharing, unpredictable signals on US force posture in Europe, and inflammatory rhetoric towards allies, including over Greenland. At the same time, recent drone incursions and Russian jamming-related incidents on NATO’s eastern flank have exposed the extent to which the Alliance’s security environment is becoming more volatile and more difficult to contain.

On the other hand, the deteriorating geopolitical context also helped drive overdue policy adaptation. At the 2025 Hague Summit, Allies agreed to a new 5% defence investment commitment by 2035 to strengthen Europe’s independent defence capabilities and to shift burden-sharing to a fairer balance among the Allies. The Ankara Summit will therefore be an early test of whether that political commitment can be translated into credible implementation and a more balanced transatlantic distribution of responsibilities.

The past year has been characterised by deepening divisions among Allies on a range of strategic questions, including support for Ukraine, the consequences of the US-led strikes on Iran, and the broader meaning of European strategic responsibility inside NATO. Internal strains, growing uncertainty over US priorities, and mounting pressure on the Alliance’s eastern flank have all raised harder questions about NATO’s deterrence posture and long-term cohesion.

The Ankara Summit will serve as a political stress test for the Alliance. Anticipated points of discussion will most likely revolve around seeking a common approach to Ukraine and Iran, a stronger Europe in a stronger NATO, as well as Secretary-General Rutte’s calls to boost defence investments and industrial production. Beyond headline commitments, the real measure of success will be whether NATO can show that it remains capable of strategic adaptation under pressure: aligning threat perceptions, sustaining support for Ukraine, reinforcing its eastern flank, and translating higher spending pledges into usable capability.

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PHOTO CREDIT: Shutterstock| Alexandros Michailidis

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Speakers

Myroslava Gongadze is a journalist and foreign policy expert specialising in Eastern European security, democratic resilience and strategic communications. As the first Eastern Europe Bureau chief for Voice of America (VOA), she directed coverage across frontline states and oversaw multimedia reporting on Russia’s war against Ukraine and its global consequences. Previously, as chief of VOA’s Ukrainian service in Washington, she transformed the service into a leading source of US news and policy analysis for millions of Ukrainian viewers.

Rose Gottemoeller is the Steven C. Házy Lecturer at Stanford University’s Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies and its Center for International Security and Cooperation. Before joining Stanford, Gottemoeller was the deputy secretary-general of NATO. Prior to NATO, she served for nearly five years as the under secretary for arms control and international security at the United States Department of State, advising the Secretary of State on arms control, nonproliferation and political-military affairs. While assistant secretary of state for arms control, verification and compliance, she was the chief US negotiator of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) with the Russian Federation.

Retiring from NATO in September 2018 after 38 years at the organisation, Jamie Shea has occupied a number of senior positions at NATO across a wide range of areas, including external relations, press and media, and policy planning. As NATO’s spokesperson, he was the face of the alliance during the Bosnia and Kosovo conflicts. He later worked as the director of policy planning in the private office of former secretary general Rasmussen during the preparation of NATO’s 2010 Strategic Concept. Shea is also a regular lecturer and conference speaker on NATO and European security affairs.

Thomas Van Vynckt is Friends of Europe’s Head of Peace, Security and Defence, which includes the Ukraine Initiative launched in 2023. Prior to joining Friends of Europe, he worked in the defence industry in the private sector in London (UK) and at NATO Headquarters in Brussels, both in the Political Affairs and Security Policy (PASP) and the Operations (Ops) divisions. Earlier in his career, Van Vynckt also worked with GLOBSEC in Bratislava and the Post-Conflict Research Center in Sarajevo. He holds an MSC from Aberdeen University and an MA from King’s College London.

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