NATO’s fragile future under the spotlight: a preview of the upcoming Ankara Summit

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The upcoming NATO Summit in Ankara will take place at a particularly fragile moment for the Alliance. President Trump’s second term has revived long-standing concerns about Washington’s commitment to NATO, with renewed pressure regarding burden-sharing, unpredictable signals on US force posture in Europe and inflammatory rhetoric towards allies, including over Greenland. At the same time, recent drone incursions and Russian jamming-related incidents on NATO’s eastern flank have underscored how the Alliance’s security environment is becoming increasingly volatile and difficult to contain.

At the same time, the deteriorating geopolitical context also helped drive overdue policy adaptation. At the 2025 Hague Summit, Allies agreed to a new 5% defence investment commitment by 2035 to strengthen Europe’s independent defence capabilities and shift burden-sharing to a fairer balance among the Allies.  The Ankara Summit will therefore serve as an early test of whether that political commitment can be translated into credible implementation and a more balanced transatlantic distribution of responsibilities.

The past year has been characterised by deepening divisions among Allies on a range of strategic questions, including support for Ukraine, the consequences of the US-led strikes on Iran, and the broader meaning of European strategic responsibility within NATO. Internal strains, growing uncertainty over US priorities and mounting pressure on the Alliance’s eastern flank have all raised more fundamental questions regarding NATO’s deterrence posture and long-term cohesion.

The Ankara Summit will serve as a political stress test for the Alliance. Anticipated points of discussion are likely to focus on forging a common approach to Ukraine and Iran, strengthening Europe’s role within a stronger NATO, as well as Secretary-General Rutte’s calls to boost defence investments and industrial production. Beyond headline commitments, the real measure of success will be whether NATO can show that it remains capable of strategic adaptation under pressure: aligning threat perceptions, sustaining support for Ukraine, reinforcing its eastern flank, and translating higher spending pledges into deployable capabilities.

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PHOTO CREDIT: Shutterstock| Alexandros Michailidis

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NATO’s fragile future under the spotlight: A preview of the upcoming Ankara Summit
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Myroslava Gongadze
Myroslava Gongadze

Senior Fellow for Peace, Security and Defence at Friends of Europe, Nonresident Senior Fellow at Atlantic Council, Supervisory Board Member at the Ukrainian Institute and Editorial Advisory Board Member at Ukrainska Pravda

Show more information on Myroslava Gongadze

Myroslava Gongadze is a journalist and foreign policy expert specialising in Eastern European security, democratic resilience and strategic communications. As the first Eastern Europe Bureau chief for Voice of America (VOA), she directed coverage across frontline states and oversaw multimedia reporting on Russia’s war against Ukraine and its global consequences. Previously, as chief of VOA’s Ukrainian service in Washington, she transformed the service into a leading source of US news and policy analysis for millions of Ukrainian viewers.

Photo of Rose Gottemoeller
Rose Gottemoeller

Steven C. Házy Lecturer at Stanford University, former Deputy Secretary General of NATO and former Under Secretary for Arms Control and International Security at the U.S. Department of State

Show more information on Rose Gottemoeller

Rose Gottemoeller is the Steven C. Házy Lecturer at Stanford University’s Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies and its Center for International Security and Cooperation. Before joining Stanford, Gottemoeller was the deputy secretary-general of NATO. Prior to NATO, she served for nearly five years as the under secretary for arms control and international security at the United States Department of State, advising the Secretary of State on arms control, nonproliferation and political-military affairs. While assistant secretary of state for arms control, verification and compliance, she was the chief US negotiator of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) with the Russian Federation.

Photo of Jamie Shea
Jamie Shea

Senior Fellow for Peace, Security and Defence at Friends of Europe, and former Deputy Assistant Secretary General for Emerging Security Challenges at the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)

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Retiring from NATO in September 2018 after 38 years at the organisation, Jamie Shea has occupied a number of senior positions at NATO across a wide range of areas, including external relations, press and media, and policy planning. As NATO’s spokesperson, he was the face of the alliance during the Bosnia and Kosovo conflicts. He later worked as the director of policy planning in the private office of former secretary general Rasmussen during the preparation of NATO’s 2010 Strategic Concept. Shea is also a regular lecturer and conference speaker on NATO and European security affairs.

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Thomas Van Vynckt

Head of Peace, Security and Defence at Friends of Europe

Show more information on Thomas Van Vynckt

Thomas Van Vynckt is Head of Peace, Security and Defence at Friends of Europe, where he leads the organisation’s work on European security, defence industrial policy, the war in Ukraine and Europe’s strategic preparedness. He has over nine years of experience across the private, public and civil society sectors, combining policy analysis, advocacy, stakeholder engagement and complex programme management. Before joining Friends of Europe, Thomas worked at NATO Headquarters in both the Operations and Political Affairs divisions. He previously produced international defence and security conferences at SAE Media in London. Thomas holds degrees from King’s College London, the University of Aberdeen and Leiden University, and is fluent in French, Dutch, and English.

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