Climate and Energy Summit 2025
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- Area of Expertise
- Climate, Energy & Natural Resources
Climate, Energy & Natural Resources
Glaciologist, Deputy Secretary of the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP) and 2024 European Young Leader (EYL40)
From the glacier collapse that wiped out most of the Swiss village of Blatten to the deadly glacial lake outburst floods in Nepal and the catastrophic floods that swept through Texas, the world is learning, tragically, that extreme events are accelerating. Each disaster may look different in form yet shares the same underlying cause: a destabilising climate system, directly linked to the extraction and burning of fossil fuels. What connects a collapsing glacier, Himalayan floods and flash floods in the southern US? The answer is simple: human-driven global warming. And as the cryosphere (the world’s snow and ice regions) destabilises, these disasters will only multiply.
All over the world, heatwaves and temperature records are being broken with alarming regularity. According to an analysis from the Grantham Institute and the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, human-induced climate change intensified Europe’s recent heatwave, raising temperatures in cities by up to 4°C and directly causing the increase of heat-related deaths by approximately 1,500 in 12 European cities over just 10 days (23 June to 2 July). Overall, climate change tripled the number of deaths linked to the event. This is no longer theoretical: fossil fuel combustion is directly costing human lives.
At the very moment when leadership is most needed, political will is evaporating in some countries
At the heart of the climate conversation is the 1.5°C target, a limit set by the Paris Agreement as the line we must try not to cross. Yet, according to a recent analysis published by the Copernicus Climate Change Service, the world will likely breach the 1.5°C threshold within just three years. Still, we must understand that every fraction of a degree matters, every ton of CO2 we do not emit matters. Crossing 1.5°C is not a symbolic failure, it triggers irreversible physical processes such as ice sheet destabilisation, permafrost thaw and ecosystem collapse. Tipping points in Earth’s systems – ice sheet collapse, permafrost thaw and the destabilisation of key ocean currents – shift from risk to near-certainty the higher temperatures rise.
And yet, as these scientific warnings intensify, the political response falters. The European Union is far from achieving its 1.5°C, or even 2°C, commitments. In the US, funding cuts to key climate research programmes undermine not only mitigation efforts but also the capacity to adapt to already unfolding disasters. At the very moment when leadership is most needed, political will is evaporating in some countries.
This complacency ignores one fundamental reality: we cannot negotiate with the physical limits of our planet. Ice melts at 0°C. No matter how sophisticated our technologies or how robust our economies, we cannot prevent glaciers, permafrost and ice sheets from responding to the laws of physics. As the “State of the Cryosphere Report” highlights, at 2°C of warming, permafrost alone will emit as much carbon as the EU produces annually – and will continue to do so for centuries. These are emissions we cannot control once the thaw is triggered. Similarly, the collapse of Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets would lock in irreversible sea level rise, flooding coastlines for generations to come.
Without cutting emissions, without ending our dependence on fossil fuels, we will reach a point where we can no longer adapt fast enough
Despite this stark reality, there are reasons for hope. China’s emissions may have already peaked, the United Kingdom now emits just 371mn tonnes of CO2 equivalent (MtCO₂e) – its lowest level since 1872 – according to Carbon Brief’s analysis of preliminary government energy data and Portugal has made remarkable progress, generating much of its electricity from renewable sources. These examples show that decarbonisation is not a distant dream but an achievable path, when policy and ambition align.
2025 marks the start of the Decade of Action for Cryospheric Sciences, a rare political momentum on glaciers and frozen regions. Governments are finally acknowledging that the fate of ice is the fate of humanity. The question is whether this momentum will translate into the rapid action science demands.
Because adaptation alone will not save us. Building flood defences, improving early warning systems or relocating communities are vital steps but they will be overwhelmed if emissions continue unabated. Adaptation and mitigation are not interchangeable. Without cutting emissions, without ending our dependence on fossil fuels, we will reach a point where we can no longer adapt fast enough.
Ultimately, the real strength lies in collective action
We must also be cautious of so-called climate interventions like solar radiation management, albedo modification, stratospheric aerosols and speculative technologies such as sea curtains to slow glacier melt. These large-scale geoengineering approaches are now undergoing a PR rebrand, often labelled as ‘climate repair’ or ‘nature-based climate repair’, to make them appear safer and more natural. But they remain risky, unproven and cannot replace deep emissions cuts. The solution isn’t gambling with planetary systems, but reducing fossil fuel emissions and investing in real, nature-based solutions.
Decarbonisation brings immediate and tangible benefits. Cleaner air, healthier populations, stronger and more resilient communities, thriving biodiversity and millions of new jobs in the green economy. As Eliza Morgea, UN Rapporteur on Health, rightly said: “decarbonisation is the single most effective health contribution” humanity can make.
Ultimately, the real strength lies in collective action. The magic happens when scientists, businesses, citizens, civil society and political leaders work together. No sector, no nation, no individual can solve this crisis alone. We have the tools. We know the solutions. What we need now is unity and courage.
Because alone, we feel powerless.
But together, we are invincible.
The views expressed in this #CriticalThinking article reflect those of the author(s) and not of Friends of Europe.
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