Preventing Future Wars – Keeping an Eye on the Geopolitical Ball

Eye on the Geopolitical Ball

Peace, Security & Defence

Keeping an Eye on the Geopolitical Ball, brought to you by Jamie Shea, Senior Fellow of Friends of Europe and former NATO Deputy Assistant Secretary General, provides a weekly overview of the current and emerging crises or threats in security and defence.

Using his past experience as an ex-NATO insider, his in-depth knowledge and insights gained throughout the years, Jamie casts his eye on the state of geopolitics in Europe and across the globe. He brings an independent view and essential insight into a range of conflicts and emerging threats on our shores and further afield.

Keeping an Eye on the Geopolitical Ball is essential viewing for anyone who wants to keep track of events as they unfold.

This week on Keeping an Eye on the Geopolitical Ball, Jamie Shea, Senior Fellow at Friends of Europe, tackles the imperative for world leaders to prevent future wars on the backdrop of United Nations General Assembly and in the context of the on-going war in Ukraine. Highlighting the sombre tone of the UNGA but also the fact that not all disputes tip over to open warfare, Shea examines the main factors that lead decision-makers to pull their countries into disastrous and murderous armed conflicts, namely the accumulation of power any one person’s hands, the absence of checks and balances, misperceptions and uncertainty, the tendency for leaders to overcommit to their initial objectives, and the propensity for side factions to pull their states in bellicose directions. To mitigate and address these elements, Shea affirms that checks and balances must become a central component of all governments worldwide, whether democratic ones such as the media and parliament or those of the less democratic kinds, such as private businesses and the military institution. He also asserts that states seeking to prevent conflicts should strive to increase the certainty for leaders contemplating armed endeavours to face huge costs if they go ahead with their plans. Primarily Shea advances that given how avoiding hostilities often requires the intervention of a mediator, the UN should step up and take on this role more regularly and early on as an intermediary between conflicting parties.

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