Saying 'No' to Trump must trigger tougher EU policies

Giles Merritt urges EU leaders to learn from their muddled Iran responses and adopt more proactive, and even pre-emptive, common external policies.

Donald Trump’s megalomania has trashed stable relations around the world and is hastening the end of the vaunted ‘American century’.  Chief among the rueful lessons learned by allies and friends of the US is Europe’s awakening to the new geo-security role it must play.

The European Union has long limited itself to reacting to external events; it has rarely sought to shape developments elsewhere, still less to actively prevent them. That passivity must stop. EU governments are dismayed by their own muddled and contradictory responses to Trump’s war in Iran and can see how essential firmly stated European policy positions have become.

This means slicing through the Gordian knot of EU rules and procedures that have long defied necessary reform. Reform can no longer be ducked because European public opinion is appalled by EU leaders’ fumbling display of weakness and disarray. Trump’s impending Iranian attack was plain for weeks, so why didn’t Europe speak out and warn of the consequences?

Now, a European pushback against Trump’s bullying is building, with signs of rebelliousness among NATO allies alienated by his tariffs, his threats to Greenland and demands that they engage in the ill-considered and illegal Iran campaign. Yet standing up to Trump isn’t the toughest step the EU’s member governments must take.

What’s needed is a revolution in the EU mindset. The last quarter-century of largely introspective policymaking has pushed external affairs to the edges. Yes, there’s the European External Action Service (EEAS) – the EU’s ‘diplomatic service’ – but it’s a Potemkin village that’s impressive yet illusory. Proof of the pudding is the EU’s lack of strategic policy stances on key questions.

Until the Ukraine war, the EU hadn’t formulated a clear Russia policy. Nor does it have a China policy, other than commercial ones. It has ‘values’ and supports the UN and a host of multilateral bodies along with its trade and investment deals, but it doesn’t set out common positions on major geopolitical relationships. The different histories, cultures and economic interests of EU member states have stood in the way of such consensus declarations.

That’s the bullet EU governments have to bite, and they have Trump to thank for this make-or-break moment. The EU rightly celebrates its enlargements, but this growing diversity is also the European project’s greatest vulnerability. The Union needs to acknowledge that each newcomer increases internal divisions, so the solution is more flexible decision-making.

Recent weeks have witnessed the embarrassing spectacle of top EU officials bickering over the pecking order of their competences and leadership roles. Europe’s heads of government have sown even more confusion. In a world increasingly dominated by ‘strongmen’ like China’s Xi Jinping and Russia’s Putin, to say nothing of the maverick and unhinged Trump, it’s clear that European politicians either sink their differences or are banished to the sidelines.

Looking beyond the present to mid-century, policymakers must focus on the rise of emerging giants whose sizes dwarf even the largest EU countries. Indonesia, Ethiopia, Brazil, Bangladesh, Nigeria and Pakistan are on growth paths that will challenge Europe economically. Business leaders in the EU should be crying out for Brussels to engage in strategic thinking.

The fault lies most of all with the member governments. As well as pursuing competing interests, they have also starved the EU of the diplomatic and political firepower needed to construct common external policies. The European Commission, meanwhile, has been downgraded in this century to more of a secretarial than inventive role.

It remains to be seen whether Trump’s powder train of crises will force a dramatic reappraisal of the EU’s powers of initiative and its solidarity. The damage to its reputation and international authority is only half the story. Just as crucial is the sapping of public confidence at home. The EU’s waning credibility risks derailing the drive to complete the single market and streamline Europe’s sagging economy.

Trump is odious. He is the catalyst for global turmoil and the antithesis of all that Europe stands for. But fears that Washington could further undermine Ukraine’s defences have so far stifled EU criticisms. America’s unfolding Iranian misadventure, however, is rapidly altering this calculus. It is a now-or-never moment for the EU to champion multilateralism and the rule of international law. The stakes are high; if European leaders bow to Trump, the cost could be a slippery slope towards the EU’s disintegration.

The views expressed in this Frankly Speaking op-ed reflect those of the author and not of Friends of Europe.