Europe’s social contract: the stakes have never been higher

2025 has been a year of upheaval. The best laid plans have been turned upside down, leaving actors the world over to adapt or risk being left behind.

In this new world, people are scared to talk about equality, development aid has gone out the window and the planet under our very feet risks being reduced to the role of resource – just another commodity. The progress for which countless people have worked tirelessly to create legal and protection frameworks has been written out and washed away.

And while outside actors chip away at hard-won progress across the world, the European Union finds itself confronted by internal actors who question its existence and purpose – actors who have forgotten and lost sight of the state of the world post-WWII, and the significance that the relative peace that followed truly holds.

But that does not have to be the world we live in.

To be able to thrive, adaptation will be required. But adaptation does not mean compliance or bending to the will of the loudest person in the room. It means building oneself up to be bolder, more assertive and more self-reliant, standing up for those who are too weak to do so themselves.

In the face of a multilevel attempt to dismantle the social contract, the EU will have to modernise to survive, being clearer with those who are working against it from the inside that business as usual cannot be sustained. It must take a radical, progressive approach to developing and strengthening its institutions, underpinning them effectively for success.

Friends of Europe’s latest work on Europe’s Renewed Social Contract builds upon all we’ve done thus far. As part of an annual update to mark our progress towards something bigger and bolder, we took our 2024 publication, 10 policy choices for a Renewed Social Contract for Europe, and latest citizen data to our European Young Leaders (EYL40) during our 2025 spring seminar, asking them to engage in a foresight exercise that looked with fresh eyes at the policy choices Europe should make to be safe, strong and a solid and reliable partner on the world stage.

The outcome of this exercise is a set of foresight scenarios that we have mapped against our 2018 matrix and 10 policy choices, to show what steps Europe will have to take to reach the best possible outcomes. These insights have been complemented by additional expertise and input received from our network and in-house experts.

Related content:

• Initiative | Renewed Social Contract
• Report | Voices for Choices – Europe’s next chapter starts with its youngest voices
• Report | 10 Policy Choices for a Renewed Social Contract for Europe