Watch out Europe!

Something significant and potentially fundamental changed in the global atmosphere and climate last January. This wasn’t just the impact of climate change but of political change in one of the most powerful houses in the world, the White House.

International rules, multilateralism, multilateral institutions and 80-year-old alliances and institutions formed against the backdrop of WWII, all suddenly came into question, if not regarded to be out of touch, out of tune and not fit for what has been described increasingly by the administration of Washington as the future of Western civilisation. Ideas of nationalism, introversion and self-serving ideologies of difference abound, carrying a stench of lessons from the 1930s that were never learned.

For the first time in its history, the US released a National Security Strategy that combined a worldview and an ideology of upholding and developing the concept of Western civilisation with security and defence matters.

For world leaders who continue to believe that the posture of the US and the dynamic that the administration has created can be managed through diplomacy, they are either foolhardy or naive if they have read the US National Security Strategy carefully. It defines more clearly the US vision for the world, the role it is prepared to play in this regard, and that America will always come first. Its clarity of intent is important, as is the sobering effect it should have on the world at large. Unlike previous US strategies on security, it contains an ideology of difference. It sets out very clearly a future, and a sense of what makes the world work in terms of who is part of the future based on a certain doctrine based on difference, of communities that belong based on very clear lines of ethnicity, religion, and values of individualism, and a belief that human rights and equalities are rupturing the modern world.

Europe, as a beneficiary of US support during WWII and since, needs to watch out and to think more critically and evaluate the role it wishes to play on a different global stage. Its future as a collective hangs in the balance. It is caught in a transatlantic vortex, calling into question its purpose and relevance. But Europe needs to think hard and in real time about the role it wishes to have in the future distribution of power, whilst the US goes through a profound change. It needs to watch out if it wants to be an author of its future or be defined by others. This is not the time for prevarication or wasting time on consensus building.

Europe has huge resources and assets at its disposal. It has a big market, the world’s fourth largest trading bloc, with the US as its largest foreign direct investor, a social model that is successful, and a collective of 27 international and diplomatic ties, which are an envy of other world players. Yet its lack of self-esteem and lack of self-confidence to recognise and play to these and other strengths is a folly. The challenge for Europe is not only strategic but moral. Its citizens, communities and institutions face a test: to either stand as passive bystanders to the shifts reshaping the world, or to renew the social and political compact that binds it together, ensuring that peace, prosperity, inclusion and sustainability are more than slogans – but the very principles by which Europe acts.

It can pivot towards enabling a world order suited to our times and emerging future, and recalibrate political and economic relations both within the bloc and importantly with nations across the world that continue to believe in rules, values of justice and human rights, and for trade and economic ties to be about mutuality and reciprocity acknowledging the interdependent world we live in. This should be its task of today: to step forward and establish a coalition of world economies fit for the 21st century.

Learning from the debacle and spectacle of what is taking place, Europe must remember that good governance, with strong checks and balances, is an essential foundation of democracy.

Europe’s top three priorities must now reflect both principle and pragmatism: more assertive support of Ukraine whilst improving its common defence capabilities in an intelligent, interoperable, digitally enabled future-focused manner; ensuring just and competitive digital and climate transitions; and improving the business case for its social model. These efforts will only succeed if underpinned by social cohesion and a Renewed Social Contract – recognising that Europe’s social model, its ageing populations, public debts and citizen expectations are foundations to be strengthened, not weaknesses to be feared.

“Some lines have been crossed that cannot be uncrossed anymore,” said Von der Leyen at the recent Munich Security Forum. Let this be a reminder that Europe’s moment is now: to act decisively, grounded in its values and to shape its own destiny rather than wait for signals from elsewhere.

But Ukraine bleeds while Europe prevaricates and hopes for the best, focusing on de-escalation, diplomacy and taking signals from the US! The war has dramatically exposed Europe’s gaps – slow capability development, fragmented procurement and uneven societal readiness – while Russian drones strike civilians and infrastructure, making 2025 the deadliest year yet for Ukrainian civilians. Europe should stop viewing Ukraine as a net beneficiary of EU financial support and face the truth: Ukraine is a net contributor to Europe’s security and defence shield. If this is understood, then the narrative and mindset should change.

If further proof were needed, the 28 February joint US–Israeli strikes on Iran have provided it. It was a unilateral determination of threat, executed without meaningful recourse to international law, the UN Security Council, the G7 or even traditional alliance consultation. The strikes were justified on their own terms, at speed and scale, with little regard for escalation or the wider regional and global consequences.

The risks extend far beyond the Middle East. Such actions risk inflaming fundamentalism, hardening civilisational fault lines and reviving the politics of ‘otherness’ that Europe knows too well. At a time when Russia deepens its military links with Iran and the war in Ukraine rages on, these actions exacerbate global instability and uncertainty. This is not merely a multilateral global order under pressure; it is being torn apart.

Until Europe understands the modus operandi of the White House and decides to go its own way – finally having the confidence to determine its own future – it will fail the test of history to do the right thing, safeguard the future for which it was created and summon the stamina to navigate the US vortex, forge meaningful alliances, leverage its assets and fulfil the leadership role its legacy demands. It must become a balancer, market maker and value setter, guided by a Renewed Social Contract to protect its future and that of its citizens, and stand as a voice of reason, thoughtfulness and kindness.

The vulgarity of the recent scenes in Minneapolis reflected the excesses of power. Scenes that one would never have thought would be state-sanctioned by one of the most important democratic powers in the world, and one would be forgiven for believing they were more illustrative of a tinpot dictator regime elsewhere. Let this be a leitmotif of how profound the change taking place in the United States really is. Take heed and watch out Europe!

The views expressed in this #CriticalThinking article reflect those of the author(s) and not of Friends of Europe.