Venezuela’s elusive democratic transition: what role for the EU?

On 4 February, Chavismo – the socialist, nationalist movement inspired by Hugo Chávez – marked 27 years in power in Venezuela. During much of Chavez’s 13 years ruling the country, and the following 12 years under his successor Nicolás Maduro, one central question has dominated discussions: when and how will Venezuela’s nightmare and tragedy end? And how and when will the country return to a path of prosperity and democratic rule?

More than a month since the Trump administration executed a dramatic military operation to seize Maduro from his compound in Caracas, that question remains highly pertinent. Maduro may be facing federal charges in New York City, but the regime’s other senior figures, led by former vice president and current President Delcy Rodríguez, are making day-to-day decisions.  All have been integral to a brutal and highly corrupt criminal authoritarian regime responsible for massive human rights violations, not to mention an economic and humanitarian disaster that has produced an unprecedented exodus of roughly a quarter of the country’s population since 2014.

Of course, the remnants of the regime have limited room to manoeuvre and are severely conditioned by the US. The current arrangement – the product of a change in leadership, not of regime – might be best described as coerced cooperation. The Chavistas still hold on to top positions and seem prepared to do the US administration’s bidding chiefly on the economy, and particularly – of most interest to Trump – oil. That is why Rodríguez, who had extensive contacts with oil company executives from different countries, was able to gain the confidence of the Trump team to manage the government and implement Washington’s dictates.

Disturbingly, but unsurprisingly, absent from Trump’s remarks the day following the bold military raid was any mention of a move towards democracy in Venezuela. That Trump was so dismissive of opposition leader and Nobel Peace Prize winner María Corina Machado was, though expected, unfortunate. . Restoring democracy or reestablishing some semblance of the rule of law has never been a top priority of Trump’s Venezuela policy – or arguably, any of his policies. Opening up business opportunities and maintaining stability take precedence.

In a 27 January Senate hearing, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio laid out the three phases envisioned for Venezuela. The first is economic stabilisation, followed by recovery and then convening elections and a democratic transition. Rubio did not, however, provide a timetable.  Predictably, Machado has been pressing for new elections this year. On that key question, uncertainty looms. Trump does not appear keen to move towards the final phase of the plan.

It is undeniable that, while Chavista structures remain largely intact, a great deal is changing – and at a rapid pace – in Venezuela. It is hard to keep track. On the oil/economic front, under US pressure Rodríguez has presided over the liberalisation of the petroleum sector, reflected in new legislation and marking a dramatic policy reversal. Whether the radical reform results in new foreign capital and a major economic improvement for Venezuelans – and in what time frame – is unclear.

Political reforms and governance changes in Venezuela under the new, tenuous arrangement are, however, far less clear and more problematic. Although hundreds of political prisoners have been released, hundreds more remain in wretched conditions. The government has proposed a sweeping amnesty law, highlighting a message of political reconciliation, though concerns remain about its precise scope and transparency. Most worrying, the repressive apparatus and the colectivos or private militias have not only not been dismantled, but both Trump and Rodríguez likely see them as necessary to maintain order and stability and avoid an Iraq-like scenario of collapse and chaos that would require US ground troops in Venezuela.

Against this complex backdrop, efforts by other actors to assist Venezuelans to restore democratic rule that would help deliver sustainable social and economic welfare are crucial. To date, Latin American support for a democratic transition in Venezuela has been disappointing.

The region has never been more fragmented. It has been unable to muster the will to mount significant pressure on the regime and fully back the opposition. After Maduro blatantly stole the July 2024 elections and Edmundo González was denied his rightful place as Venezuela’s president, there was some hope that leftist governments in Latin America’s three largest countries – Brazil, Mexico and Colombia – would play a constructive role. Sadly, however, they failed to meet the moment.   The current situation offers the region another opportunity and will test its commitment to a negotiated democratic transition in Venezuela.

In this critical juncture, the European Union (EU) can and should play a positive role in building stable, democratic rule in Venezuela. Although it lacks the hard-power leverage of the United States, the EU possesses other tools and assets that can prove enormously valuable. Working with regional actors, it should support civil society groups and use diplomacy to insist on Venezuelan ownership of the transition.

The EU can also serve as a mediator or guarantor in eventual negotiations between the regime and the opposition to ensure a smooth and orderly process that yields a democratic outcome.   And whenever elections are held, the technical credibility of EU observation missions will be crucial to guarantee a transparent and fair process.

To be sure, the EU is confronting an array of difficult challenges and has many other priorities.   Relations between Brussels and Washington are fraught. There are also differences among EU members regarding their views about Venezuela and how much energy they are prepared to devote to the issue. Still, if limited resources are used wisely, the EU can make a meaningful difference in Venezuela.

What has happened – and is happening – in Venezuela should humble all of us. In fact, no one predicted the current situation. As Colombian writer Gabriel Garcia Márquez often said, the Caribbean is full of surprises, anything can happen. The possible paths and trajectories are varied and highly uncertain.

Nonetheless, it is very important to keep a strong focus on rebuilding a stable, prosperous and democratic order in Venezuela. That should be the ultimate aim. It is what the vast majority of Venezuelans – those who live in the country and the nearly 9 million in the diaspora – aspire to. The responsibility of helping to turn this aspiration into a reality rests with all of us – however much effort it requires and however long it may take.

The views expressed in this #CriticalThinking article reflect those of the author(s) and not of Friends of Europe.