The geopolitical imperative driving Europe’s new era of enlargement

The European Commission’s inaugural Enlargement Forum, convened in Brussels just weeks ago, signalled a pivotal moment in the EU’s approach to enlargement. At its core lies a fundamental question: Why enlarge? The answer is straightforward: Europe’s future depends on it. The continent’s security, prosperity, and unity all rely on advancing the integration project.

President von der Leyen, in her video address, underscored this point, framing enlargement not as a political option but as “an investment in our collective security and freedom,” while insisting that “the process must remain strict, fair and merit based.” Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos was equally direct, arguing that in today’s geopolitical climate, enlargement is a strategic priority, vital for EU’s stability and for safeguarding democracy in aspiring members. She emphasised the need for tangible progress from the onset, with candidate countries gradually integrating into the EU single market and key EU policies. In this respect, the strategic vision of enlargement will show concrete impact.

The geopolitical imperative

As we, at Friends of Europe prepare for our annual EU-Western Balkans Summit, one of the satellite events of the EU Enlargement Forum, it is evident that the geopolitical window of opportunity for enlargement is now wide open, and the issue has firmly returned politically to the agenda and the narrative of top EU policymakers.

Enlargement has reemerged as a priority because of stark geopolitical reality. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has reshaped Europe’s security landscape and compelled the EU to rethink its foreign and security posture. Historically, the EU’s most effective foreign policy tool, enlargement has once again become central to stabilising the continent. Geopolitics has always influenced the EU’s enlargement trajectory – from the first round in 1973 to the most recent in 2013. The initial wave cemented democratic transitions, the second secured Europe after the Cold War through deeper economic and security integration, and today’s emerging third wave is unmistakably driven by geopolitics.

In the 1980s, EU membership consolidated democracy in Greece, Spain and Portugal. The 2004 ‘big bang’ enlargement stabilised Eastern Europe, brought 10 new countries and 75 million citizens into the Union, and reinforced post-Cold War peace. The Balkan wars of the 1990s underscored that integration was not just a political choice but a security necessity, transforming enlargement into a tool for post-conflict transformation. The results speak for themselves: every enlargement round has strengthened Europe’s security, fuelled economic growth and expanded the world’s largest single market to more than 500 million people. Since 2004, average EU income per capita has doubled – and in many accession countries, it has tripled.

Inside Europe’s enlargement debate

Europe’s enlargement debate has unfolded against the backdrop of the longest pause since Croatia joined in 2013. Over the last decade the process had grown increasingly uncertain, marked by unclear membership prospects, growing fatigue within the EU, institutional doubts and lingering scepticism after mixed past enlargements. All these factors had fuelled reform fatigue, weakened political commitment, eroded public support and stalled progress across the candidate countries.

The key question now is when the EU will finally admit new members. Calls to “fix the house first” persist, even as consensus grows that widening and deepening must advance together. The EU’s ‘absorption capacity’ is again under scrutiny, though the 2023 Granada Declaration stresses that the EU and candidates must advance in parallel, and the Lisbon Treaty already allows further enlargement without treaty change.

While 56% of Europeans support enlargement, opposition is strong in some member states, and 67% feel poorly informed. Concerns about corruption, migration and financial costs persist, often amplified by misinformation and limited awareness of long-term benefits. Closing these information gaps and countering foreign interference have become strategic priorities. Raising awareness of candidate countries is essential for building empathy and support. A well-informed enlargement process ultimately bolsters EU unity and ensures both public backing and institutional readiness for integrating new members. A larger Union is better positioned to defend its economic and trade interests, while new members bring valuable assets – skills, talent, industrial and digital capacity, and critical materials – that expand opportunities through strategic investment and a wider single market.

The security-driven imperative of enlargement, particularly the expedited accession process for Ukraine and Moldova, in stark contrast to the slower, more technical approach previously applied in the Western Balkans, has breathed new life into the enlargement agenda. Ukraine’s extraordinary determination to pursue EU membership during wartime helped spur decisive action, leading the EU to place both Ukraine and Moldova firmly on the accession path, and both countries have moved quickly, completing the bilateral screening of their alignment with the EU acquis at record speed. Montenegro aims to join the EU by 2028, and Albania wants to conclude accession talks by 2027, with both making steady reform progress. Overall, candidates are advancing at different paces, underscoring the continued importance of a merit-based accession process.

Gradual integration

To sustain momentum, the EU is exploring ways to gradually integrating the candidate counties, by extending parts of the single market to the Western Balkans, Ukraine and Moldova – complementing existing Stabilisation and Association Agreements (SAA) and Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Areas (DCFTA), with economic plans such as the €6 billion Growth Plan for the Western Balkans, the €1.8bn Reform and Growth Facility for Moldova and the €50bn Ukraine Facility. The aim is for these financial resources to help build a business-friendly environment that draws significant foreign investment – ultimately speeding up the convergence of candidate and aspirant countries with the EU, for people to benefit from the accession process.

The enlargement process is a cost-opportunity decision, where the security and economic costs of non-enlargement would be exceptionally high. In today’s era of strategic competition, enlargement will be a cornerstone of the emerging political, economic and security order in Europe. It could also serve as a catalyst for reforming EU institutions, particularly in areas of representation, decision-making and budgeting.

In practice, enlargement offers an opportunity for a profound reconfiguration of the EU. Reforming the Union is increasingly urgent amid geopolitical tensions, rivalry with Russia and China, slow growth, innovation gaps and energy and demographic challenges.

In conclusion, a geopolitical window has opened for enlargement and the political narrative has shifted in its favour. Yet entry into the EU ultimately depends on candidate states themselves, who must unlock the gates through sustained and serious reform efforts.

The views expressed in this #CriticalThinking article reflect those of the author(s) and not of Friends of Europe.