Rethinking harmony in Asia: a new path towards a fragmented world?

We are facing multiple global threats and challenges: climate change, zoonotic diseases, technological disruption, population decline and geopolitical risks and rivalries. These have been worsened recently by the latest developments of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. As Narendra Modi said during the G20 Summit in India: “We need to transform this global trust deficit into global confidence.”

In 1996, Samuel Huntington in his book “The Clash of Civilization” identifies a major shift of economic, military and political power from the West to the other civilisations of the world. He might be right: US-led liberal international order may be ending and many countries now are moving towards strategic autonomy. This statement has been reinforced with the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) Summit, which represent 41% of the world population and 26% of the global GDP, and will be joined by six new members as of 2024. The G20 nations might take a different trajectory, especially with the shift in global demand, with China, India and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) collectively providing big markets. Is the India-Middle East Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) a possible threat or alternative to China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)?

Asia as the epicentre of growth

During the Asian Network’s latest high-level online conference, ‘Rethinking Harmony in Asia’, hosted with the support of ADB Seads and ERIA, His Excellency Dith Tina, Cambodian Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, said: “Harmony is at the core of our society and we can only achieve harmony by working together.”

ASEAN economies remain a ‘bright spot’ amid slow global and Chinese growth. With over 660mn consumers, ASEAN is the world’s fifth largest economy and is set to become the fourth largest by 2030. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the ASEAN growth is predicted at 4.2% in 2024 alone.

Nevertheless, major obstacles remain, namely the ongoing South China Sea dispute and how to engage with Myanmar. In recent years, strategic alliances – such as China’s BRI, the US-backed Quad, AUKUS (Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States) and the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity (IPEF) – have proliferated. These arrangements are seen by some as rival architectures to ASEAN-led ones, which threaten to diminish ASEAN’s ‘centrality’ in regional affairs.

Alternatives for peace and harmony

We must contribute to open regionalism and middle powers need to work with small states. We need to focus on cooperation and collaboration for a shared future in the region. Such arrangements have recently gained momentum, such as the Philippines-Indonesia-Malaysia trilateral patrols to strengthen the maritime security interest in ‘minilateral’ formats.

Dialogue is definitively a path towards conflict resolution; an agreement has been reached between China and ASEAN on new guidelines to accelerate negotiations for a binding code of conduct (COC) on the South China Sea on 13 July 2023.

The international community, particularly major regional players like India and China, need to play a role in supporting crisis resolution throughout the region. It is important to understand the interconnectedness and the multiplicity of geopolitical issues. Three key areas need to be discussed for a harmonious and prosperous region:

• capitalising on Asia’s economic development and growth drivers, including trade agreements such as RCEP, regional integration and emerging industries;
• understanding the political dynamics within Asia and its impact on regional integration, cooperation and decision-making processes; and
• examining the security issues affecting Asia and discussing regional responses to traditional and non-traditional threats.

In conclusion, a quote from Indonesian President Joko Widodo during the 18th East Asia Summit on 7 September 2023 in Jakarta captures the sentiment of the above arguments: “We have an equal responsibility to create peace, stability and prosperity in the region. We all have the same responsibility to refrain from creating new conflicts, to refrain from creating new tensions, to refrain from creating new wars.”

This article is a contribution from a member or partner organisation of Friends of Europe. The views expressed in this #CriticalThinking article reflect those of the author(s) and not of Friends of Europe.