The future European security architecture: a new middle powers’ bargain

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It took Europe years of war in Ukraine to begin scaling up its defence spending and investment in its military-industrial base, and Trump’s second term to make clear that US MAGA interests and priorities may no longer align with Europe’s. Recent US disengagement from the transatlantic security apparatus and Ukraine’s repositioning from a state under attack to a world leader in drone technology are precipitating debates on what a future European security framework may look like.

While the EU and NATO currently remain the bedrock of European security architecture, Ukraine is central to the defence of Europe against Russia and must be formally integrated into any serious post‑US, Europe‑centric defence framework. The United Kingdom, Norway and Türkiye all non-EU NATO Allies equally have a place in any such architecture.

While investment still favours legacy equipment, emerging and unmanned technologies are proving increasingly relevant as they change the face of modern warfare. For instance, modern warfare’s increasingly digital and decentralised nature values cheap platforms, rapid iteration and technology development speed. Furthermore, armed forces are no longer the sole targets of attacks. Conflict now targets critical infrastructure, public resilience and social cohesion as much as military capability. Any future European security architecture must therefore treat societal resilience as a core pillar, not a secondary concern.

The future of European security architecture is likely to rest less on grand institutional redesign from Brussels, Paris or Berlin than on a new bargain among Europe’s middle powers, anchored in Ukraine and supported by flexible coalitions of states willing to act.

Friends of Europe hosts this debate to further explore the future of the European security architecture, carrying forward the conclusions and insights from recent events on the evolving nature of warfare held in April and May, and forming part of the Clearing the Skies initiative.

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Photo of Petras Auštrevičius
Petras Auštrevičius

Member of the European Parliament Committees on Foreign Affairs, on Security and Defence, and the Subcommittee on Human Rights

Show more information on Petras Auštrevičius

Mr Petras Auštrevičius is a Lithuanian politician, diplomat and a member of the European Parliament (EP) since 2014 (re-elected in 2019 and 2024). He serves as a full member on the EP Committee on Foreign Affairs (AFET) and Security and Defence (SEDE), among other. He is the shadow rapporteur on Ukraine for his political group, Renew Europe. He also leads the Friends of European Ukraine group, which unites MEPs who are active in their work and support for Ukraine. In 2022, a few months after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, he was awarded the Order of Merit of the Second Degree by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in recognition of his dedicated work. From 2001 to 2002, he was a Chief Negotiator for Lithuania’s membership to the European Union. Mr Auštrevičius is a co-founder and first chairman of the Liberals Movement of the Republic of Lithuania.

Jaroslava-Barbieri
Jaroslava Barbieri

Research Fellow, Ukraine Forum, Russia and Eurasia Programme at Chatham House

Show more information on Jaroslava Barbieri

Jaroslava Barbieri is a Research Fellow at the Ukraine Forum, Russia and Eurasia Programme, Chatham House. Her areas of expertise include Ukrainian politics and society, Russian foreign policy, European security and enlargement, disinformation and cognitive defence. She is also a researcher for the Ukrainian History Global Initiative, contributing to multiple research projects on Ukraine in collaboration with the Kyiv-based Public Interest Journalism Lab. Previously, she was a strategist for Zinc Network (a London-based strategic communications and international development company), a teaching fellow at the University of Birmingham and a researcher at the Arena programme, SNF Agora Institute, Johns Hopkins University. Her media commentary has appeared in British and international media, including CNN, BBC, Sky News, The Telegraph, France 24 and Deutsche Welle.

Sylvie Goulard
Sylvie Goulard

Former French Minister of Defence, former Deputy Governor of Banque de France, and former member of the European Parliament, Trustee of Friends of Europe

Show more information on Sylvie Goulard

Goulard is the former French minister of the armed forces, the second woman ever to hold the head position, and has previously served as member of the European Parliament, where she addressed issues related to fighting poverty and advocating for gender equality in European institutions. Goulard began her career as a diplomat in the French Ministry of Foreign Affairs. During the pandemic, Sylvie Goulard was appointed by the World Health Organization to serve as a member of the Pan-European Commission on Health and Sustainable Development in order to ensure that health tops the political agenda.

Photo of Zanda Kalniņa-Lukaševica
Zanda Kalniņa-Lukaševica

Deputy Speaker of the Saeima, former Parliamentary State Secretary of the Latvian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and European Young Leader (EYL40)

Show more information on Zanda Kalniņa-Lukaševica

A Latvian politician, Zanda Kalniņa-Lukaševica is a Deputy Speaker of the Saeima, the Latvian parliament, where she sits on the Committee of Foreign Affairs and Committee of European Affairs. She serves as a Head of the Latvian Delegation of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe. Previously, Kalniņa-Lukaševica held numerous posts at the Latvian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, including as the parliamentary secretary, in which role she was responsible for ensuring cooperation between the ministry, the Latvian parliament and the European Parliament. She has also represented the Latvian government at the EU Foreign Affairs Council meetings of development and trade ministers. Kalniņa-Lukaševica started her professional career at Jurmala’s city council and then went on to work at the Strategic Analysis Commission of the President of Latvia, where she served as an advisor to the president.

Dharmendra Kanani
Dharmendra Kanani

Director of Policy & Programmes and Chief Spokesperson at Friends of Europe

Show more information on Dharmendra Kanani

Dharmendra Kanani is Director of Policy & Programmes and Chief Spokesperson at Friends of Europe. Prior to joining Friends of Europe, Dharmendra was director of policy at the European Foundation Centre (EFC). He was the England director at the Big Lottery Fund, the largest independent funder in the UK and fourth largest in the world. Dharmendra has held senior positions in the public and voluntary sectors and advisor to numerous ministerial policy initiatives across the UK.

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