The future European security architecture: a new middle powers’ bargain

It took Europe years of war in Ukraine to begin scaling up its defence spending and investment in its military-industrial base, and Trump’s second term to make clear that US MAGA interests and priorities may no longer align with Europe’s. Recent US disengagement from the transatlantic security apparatus and Ukraine’s repositioning from a state under attack to a world leader in drone technology are precipitating debates on what a future European security framework may look like.

While the EU and NATO currently remain the bedrock of European security architecture, Ukraine is central to the defence of Europe against Russia and must be formally integrated into any serious post‑US, Europe‑centric defence framework. The United Kingdom, Norway and Türkiye – all non-EU NATO Allies – equally have a place in any such architecture.

While investment still favours legacy equipment, emerging and unmanned technologies are proving increasingly relevant as they change the face of modern warfare. For instance, modern warfare’s increasingly digital and decentralised nature values cheap platforms, rapid iteration and technology development speed. Furthermore, armed forces are no longer the sole targets of attacks. Conflict now targets critical infrastructure, public resilience and social cohesion as much as military capability. Any future European security architecture must therefore treat societal resilience as a core pillar, not a secondary concern.

The future of European security architecture is likely to rest less on grand institutional redesign from Brussels, Paris or Berlin than on a new bargain among Europe’s middle powers, anchored in Ukraine and supported by flexible coalitions of states willing to act.

To further explore the future of European security architecture, as well as its new architects, Friends of Europe is proud to host this debate, carrying forward the conclusions and insights from the preceeding Policymakers’ Dinner.

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PHOTO CREDIT: Shutterstock| Es sarawuth