Frozen conflicts: thawing tensions in the EU’s eastern neighbourhood

Speakers during the policy insight, organised by Friends of Europe and entitled “Frozen conflicts: thawing tensions in the EU’s eastern neighbourhood,” examined the current political and geopolitical context in various regions of the EU’s southern neighbourhood, following Russia’s recent invasion of Ukraine.

The situation in Transnistria, Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Nagorno-Karabakh are “still far from stable”, said Jamie Shea, Senior Fellow at Friends of Europe and the moderator of the event.

Shea added that the conflict in Ukraine has both diverted attention away from what is happening elsewhere, but also refocused attention “because everyone is waiting to see what the impact will be on Russia’s designs in the Euro-Atlantic region”.

Zeljana Zovko, Member of the European Parliament, explained that since the 2020 ceasefire following the 44-day war in Nagorno-Karabakh, regular skirmishes have continued to take place, and last week Russian peacekeepers accused Azerbaijan of breaking the ceasefire agreement.

“Both parties need to start negotiations on sustainable settlements with clear border demarcation and delimitation,” she said, adding that the Ukraine war will “directly impact the situation”.

“The EU should avoid Russia dominating the peace talks as happened in 2020, and the EU must be actively involved in the Southern Caucasus,” she said.

“We have to be vigilant and make sure the war in Ukraine doesn’t increase tensions within these frozen conflicts,” she emphasised. “We cannot predict whether President Putin will want to reopen frozen conflicts, either to divert attention away from Ukraine or to regain ground.”

She concluded by welcoming the role of civil society and international bodies such as UNESCO “to help find a path and respect the shared heritage in Nagorno-Karabakh”.

“This is a destabilising time for people in eastern partnership countries who have not known peace for many decades,” said Hamida Giyasbayli, journalist and human rights defender.

“In the past month, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia and Moldova have tried to balance the necessity for good relations with Russia and support Ukraine’s territorial integrity,” she said.

“Yet the population has shown discontent about these policies for neutrality, which are being driven by terror experienced in [the] previous century.”

“If war in Ukraine doesn’t stop soon, destabilisation in eastern partnership countries will be unavoidable,” she stated.

Giyasbayli highlighted that the EU, NATO and the OSCE have “lost their trust” among the population, largely because of the failure of the EU’s monitoring missions in the regions.

“Frozen conflicts are not necessarily a major threat to EU stability,” she argued.

“It is the technocratic world order that is a threat to the whole world. Diplomatic efforts must be increased across the world, and finances spent on militarisation must be redirected into a global movement opposed to the concept of war itself.”

Esmira Jafarova, Board Member of the Center of Analysis of International Relations in Azerbaijan, focused her intervention on the need to implement the agreement reached in 2020 between Russia, Azerbaijan and Armenia when it comes to Karabakh.

“This agreement is very important, but unfortunately skirmishes and border clashes are the result of non-implementation of the November agreement on the part of Armenia,” she said.

She stressed that Baku wants to sign a peace treaty with Yerevan, but the latter has yet to respond.

The EU used to be inconsistent when it came to Azerbaijan and the Southern Caucasus, she explained, but after the 44-day war it started to play a constructive role, and there were meetings between the Azerbaijan leadership and European Council President Charles Michel.

“The EU has the potential to support the post-conflict rehabilitation process and the peace agenda in the region. It can play a constructive role,” she said.

“We have to condemn Russia’s activities and claim our independence from Russia, starting from the economic sphere,” concluded Giyasbayli.

“For many years we were sadly disappointed with how our independence is going because we are constantly involved in conflicts and our independence is under threat.”