A ‘Digital Twin Earth’: data, evidence and foresight tool

The EU is aiming to create a ‘digital twin earth’ – a living digital replica of the planet that offers insights into and foresights of physical changes. The data and analytics generated could help the EU enjoy improved decision-making, especially on climate action. It could also provide an opportunity for policy-driven growth, attracting private capital and research funding in this strategic area.

The digital twin earth will be the result of collaboration between the EU’s space programme and three other major initiatives: the Digital Europe Programme, the Connecting Europe Facility, and Horizon Europe.

Europe’s space strengths and their applications

Europe already has a lead in certain areas of space, said Josef Aschbacher, Director of Earth Observation Programmes at the European Space Agency (ESA).

5:16 “We have this fantastic earth observation organ called Copernicus, which is considered to be the gold standard worldwide,” he said. “This is a domain where Europe, unusually, takes the lead in space, because normally when you hear space, you hear about NASA and China.”

Now, Europe needs to make sure that good use can be made of this data and space infrastructure.

9:21 “Let’s assume there is a user in a civil protection agency in Italy. He hears about an earthquake somewhere in central Italy,” Aschbacher said. “He goes to the Destination Earth portal and selects the corresponding information menu. He would then take a new image from our satellites and compare new information with historic information. He would also get socio-economic data – how many people are affected.”

To make this kind of use possible, the ESA should develop a framework to link model centres with an open architecture.

24:25 “We want to link model centres together,” Aschbacher said. “This should be an open architecture and the ESA should put together the overall framework.”

Climate science will be an obvious beneficiary of the project.

15:16 “You have the real physical world, which is atmosphere, erosion and land vegetation – and you have all these fantastic observations taken by space agencies: observations of the real world,” said Florence Rabier, Director-General of the Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF). “You also have observations on the ground and from aircraft, and all our physical understanding of the earth.”

She said that finer resolution was needed to make the digital twin effective: it will have to reveal the impacts of changes in human activity – for example stopping traffic in big cities. “An unprecedented jump in resolution will allow you to better simulate storms and rainfall and floods for instance,” Rabier said.

How governments will use the model

Lawmakers will be able to use the foresights from the digital twin earth to make better decisions, said Dionysia-Theodora Avgerinopoulou, Member of the Hellenic Parliament and Director of the European Institute of Law, Science and Technology.

47:29 “We need more integrated information on what is going on and why in order to better decide what to do,” she said. “The foresight that science offers is vital, because lawmakers are also creating scenarios for the planet.”

Much of the data would be useful – and, indeed, generated – at the local level, Avgerinopoulou said.

48:21 “In Greece, coastal erosion is an issue for regions,” she said. “Regions can send back important information about what is going on in their physical territory. And we could make this project as interactive as possible.”

The importance of foresight

The COVID-19 pandemic has been a sharp reminder of the value of foresight.

2:10 “The European Union with other partners will be creating the capacity to really understand what is happening on this planet – behaviours, changes and impacts in everything from agriculture to the spread of disease,” said Dharmendra Kanani, Director for Asia, Peace, Security & Defence and Digital at Friends of Europe.

European Commission Vice-President Maroš Šefčovič has responsibility for foresight. The COVID-19 crisis has shown the importance of taking a long-term view, said Laurent Bontoux, a member of Šefčovič’s cabinet.

57:12 “Data is the new gold. It’s the new oil,” said Bontoux. “The Commission is coming out with the first package very soon to facilitate the proper use of this data, and more will come next year.”

38:50 “We are also facing a number of trends in terms of climate change and in terms of ecosystem regulation, which are also both profound globally and also in the long term,” said Bontoux. “That’s why this digital twin earth is extremely important to give policymakers the ability to understand what is going on. Decisions taken today create the world that we want tomorrow.”

One role of the EU is to integrate the input we need to have into all the policy areas, said Bontoux.

41:23 “The challenge we are facing is systemic understanding at the top strategic level of what the consequences of each policy area are for other policy areas.”