World Energy Outlook 2023 – official Brussels launch

Towards COP28: the global energy transition and the role for Europe

At the Brussels launch of the International Energy Agency’s 2023 World Energy Outlook, IEA Executive Director, Dr Fatih Birol, underscored the changing nature of the global energy system. “Even with current policies, the global energy landscape in 2030 will look very different today,” he said.

By 2030, the IEA expects that half of all global car sales will be of electric vehicles. It is also projected that clean electricity generation could grow to 60% by the end of the decade. In the home heating market, sales of heat pumps are projected to overtake sales of fossil fuel boilers. Birol also highlighted the need to recognise the impacts of a shifting Chinese economy on global energy demand. All of these developments, he outlined, will have major implications for the usage of fossil fuels, which the IEA forecasts will peak by the end of the decade.

Meanwhile, the amount of liquefied natural gas (LNG) capacity in the market will grow by about 50% by 2025, easing supply constraints and, ultimately, price pressures.

None of this means we are on track to meet the target of limiting global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, however. In advance of the upcoming UN climate conference, COP28, Birol called for leaders to come together and take decisive action on a range of measures. For COP28 to be a success, Birol argued that five conditions would need to be met:

• triple renewable energy capacity globally by 2030;
• double energy efficiency measures globally by 2030;
• ensure that oil and gas companies commit to cut methane emissions by 75% by 2030;
• increase funding mechanisms of advanced economies to support the transition in emerging and low-income economies; and
• set a target for “an orderly decline in fossil fuel use” and put an end to new coal-fired power plants.

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Related content:

• Press release | Lack of international cooperation is greatest challenge of COP28, says IEA

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