Revolt’s ripple effect: what comes after Prigozhin’s 24-hour rebellion?

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Peace, Security & Defence
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Revolt’s ripple effect: what comes after Prigozhin’s 24-hour rebellion?

What happened?

Consequences and perceptions of the Wagner rebellion

The rebellion of the Wagner Group and its leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, against the Kremlin on 23-24 June has shown that Putin’s power is weaker than it was just few months ago.

The current system of power in Russia does not work and the Russian elite received a clear signal following the mutiny: their security is not guaranteed and they will now have to think about their own survival and safety, according to Valerii Pekar, Co-Founder of The New Country and Member of Friends of Europe’s Working Group on the Post-War Future of Russia.

When it comes to Aleksandr Lukashenko, the Belarusian ruler has often been described as the mediator of negotiations between Prigozhin and Putin. However, “Lukashenko’s role remains unclear, even if pro-Lukashenko propaganda is now trying to present him as a negotiator-in-chief and wise leader,” argued Belarusian journalist Hanna Liubakova.

Leia Alieva, Affiliate of Russian and East European Studies at the Oxford School of Global and Area Studies (OSGA) and Member of Friends of Europe’s Working Group on the Post-War Future of Russia, said that Russia’s and Putin’s influence in Central Asia and the Caucasus has diminished, even before the beginning of the re-invasion of Ukraine. She contended that the Russian army is seen as weak and the Russian economy, ruled by a patronage system, is perceived as less efficient due to Putin’s lack of control over those benefiting from it, as exemplified by Prigozhin and the Wagner mutiny.

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Schedule

Schedule

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Revolt’s ripple effects: what comes after Prigozhin’s 24-hour rebellion?
Expand Revolt’s ripple effects: what comes after Prigozhin’s 24-hour rebellion?
  • What were the main motives behind Prigozhin’s rebellion? Considering the conciliatory nature of Lukashenko’s deal, can we consider the rebellion a failure?
  • What does Prigozhin’s rebellion and the minimal resistance he encountered tell us about the state of Putin’s power vertical, and what potential consequences may arise as a result?
  • What impact might the rebellion, symbolised by Prigozhin’s capture of the Southern Military District Headquarters, have on the Ukrainian counteroffensive?
  • What underlying motives guided Lukashenko’s mediation? Can he still rely on Putin’s support and that of his (discredited) military?

Moderator

Juraj Majcin

Programme Manager for Peace, Security & Defence at Friends of Europe

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Speakers

Speakers

Leila Alieva
Leila Alieva

Affiliate of Russian and East European Studies at the Oxford School of Global and Area Studies (OSGA) and Senior Fellow for Peace, Security and Defence at Friends of Europe

Show more information on Leila Alieva

Leila is an Affiliate of Russian and East European Studies at OSGA, prior to which she was a senior common room member and academic visitor at St. Antony’s College, Oxford University. Originally from Azerbaijan, she founded and directed two think tanks in Baku and previously held fellowships at Harvard University, UC Berkeley, Kennan Institute, the NATO Defence College and IFK (Institut Für Kulturwissenschaften) Vienna. Her research and publications cover Azerbaijan, the Caucasus, Russia and the broader former Soviet Union, ranging thematically from energy security and conflicts, to democracy in oil-rich states, as well as issues around EU and NATO integration.

Valerii Pekar
Valerii Pekar

Co-Founder of The New Country and Member of Friends of Europe’s Working Group on the Post-War Future of Russia

Show more information on Valerii Pekar

Valerii Pekar is the Co-Founder of The New Country civic platform, which unites experts working on reforms in Ukraine. He is a former member of the National Reforms Council and has served as an advisor to several Ukrainian ministers of economic development and trade. Pekar teaches the Managing Future course, which focuses on the use of forecasts in corporate practice, at the Kyiv-Mohyla Business School, as well as courses in the evolution of thinking, leadership and management. He also lectures at the Lviv Business School (LvBS) of the Ukrainian Catholic University.

Hanna Liubakova
Hanna Liubakova

Belarusian journalist in exile, democracy activist and Non-Resident Fellow at the Atlantic Council

Show more information on Hanna Liubakova

Hanna Liubakova is a journalist and analyst from Belarus. She is a Non-Resident Fellow at the Atlantic Council and has written about the latest developments in Belarus for The Washington Post, The Economist, Deutsche Welle and other international outlets. She is widely recognised as one of Belarus’s leading voices of the free press. Following the 2020 revolution, Liubakova was forced to flee Belarus and was put on the regime’s wanted list. She continued to report on the people’s resistance, including amid the Belarusian regime’s participation in the war against Ukraine. Liubakova also won the 2023 One Young World Journalist of the Year Award and was the 2021 European Press Prize finalist.

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