Iran in Focus: charting a path for the future

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Peace, Security & Defence

02Apr2026

starts 17:00

ends 18:00

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The US-Israel surprise airstrikes on Iran, which began in late February 2026, have set in motion a series of devastating and far-reaching consequences for the country, the broader region and the world at large. What the White House hoped would be a short ‘Venezuela-style’ campaign has given rise to a crisis that has since escalated considerably, both in scale and scope. The Iranian population is the first victim of this new war, even as casualties, damage and destruction have extended across the Gulf States – and as far as EU and NATO territory.

While there can be no certainties in war – especially in asymmetric warfare – some lessons are becoming apparent: the Iranian political regime has proved more resilient than expected, as has Iran’s capacity to strike using ballistic missiles and drones. US security guarantees to the Gulf States are proving fragile at best, and divisions among NATO allies can be observed. Amidst all this, we should not lose sight of the human dimension. Thousands have already lost their lives, and the death toll is likely to further increase as no immediate end is in sight. Identifying the best ways of cross-border cooperation is therefore not just a prerequisite for future regional stability, but also a moral imperative to alleviate human suffering.

This latest instalment of our ‘Iran in Focus’ series welcomes Ayman Mhanna, Executive Director of the Samir Kassir Foundation and 2017 MENA Young Leader (EYL40), and Jamie Shea, Senior Fellow for Peace, Security and Defence at Friends of Europe, and former deputy assistant secretary general at NATO, in conversation with Davide Sofia, Programme Lead for Energy and Climate at Friends of Europe, to discuss the current “state of play” of the war, explore where Iran and regional actors may go from here, and consider what a renewed conflict across the Middle East means for Europe and global (in)stability.

Related content:

Insight | Bringing Iran in from the cold: is there an opportunity here? by Jamie Shea, Senior Fellow for Peace, Security and Defence at Friends of Europe (December 2025)
Insight | Regime change in the Middle East: here we go again by Jamie Shea, Senior Fellow for Peace, Security and Defence at Friends of Europe (March 2026)

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PHOTO CREDIT: Shutterstock| vanchai tan

Schedule

17.00 18.00

Iran in Focus: charting a path for the future

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Expand Iran in Focus: charting a path for the future

What are the implications of the war for Iranian society, including pro-democracy movements, and the wider Middle East?
Given the current trajectory, what can we expect for Iran’s future in the mid- and long-term?
How might this conflict affect future relations between the US and other powers in the Middle East?
What role can the EU play in Iran and the broader region?

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Speakers

Ayman Mhanna is Executive Director of the Beirut-based Samir Kassir Foundation, one of the leading press freedom organizations in the Middle East. In this capacity, he oversees the foundation’s advocacy, monitoring, research and training activities. He previously served as Executive Director of the Global Forum for Media Development, a network of more than 200 international organizations supporting independent media worldwide. He has also worked extensively on election observation, electoral reform and civil society participation. Since February 2025, he has served as Senior Political Advisor to the Lebanese Minister of Tourism. He is a visiting professor at the College of Europe and was previously a lecturer in policy development and communications at Saint Joseph University in Beirut.

Retiring from NATO in September 2018 after 38 years at the organisation, Jamie Shea has occupied a number of senior positions at NATO across a wide range of areas, including external relations, press and media, and policy planning. As NATO’s spokesperson, he was the face of the alliance during the Bosnia and Kosovo conflicts. He later worked as the director of policy planning in the private office of former secretary general Rasmussen during the preparation of NATO’s 2010 Strategic Concept. Shea is also a regular lecturer and conference speaker on NATO and European security affairs.

Pronouns: he/him

Davide is a Programme Manager at Friends of Europe. Before joining Friends of Europe, Davide has been involved in volunteering activities and projects with NGOs in Italy and Germany focusing on international cooperation, active citizenship and the fight against organised crime and corruption. He holds a BA in International and Diplomatic Sciences from the University of Trieste and an MA in European and International Studies from the University of Trento. He is fluent in Italian and English and has intermediate knowledge of German and French.

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