Geopolitics and energy security in the Eastern Mediterranean

Energy security and broader security concerns in the Eastern Mediterranean region were discussed by two expert speakers during an event hosted by Friends of Europe against the backdrop of the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine.

The geopolitical role of the Eastern Mediterranean is one issue that risks becoming more important over the coming months because of the interconnections that exist between Ukraine, the Black Sea region and the wider Mediterranean, explained the first expert.

We need to have a clear map of what is going on, she asserted, but the coverage in Europe often does not account for these connections. This is a problem because there is a direct link between Crimea, the Bosporus, the Dardanelles and the Eastern Mediterranean.

Turkey has tried to communicate that there is a link between the Black Sea and the Mediterranean, and now Europeans need to look at the Ukraine crisis as part of a much longer-term set of wars and conflicts that involve regional and external players.

This could open up avenues for mediation and dialogue in the coming weeks and months, which is where Turkey has already expressed its desire to play a role.

Food security is one of the key risks, said the expert. Countries in the Eastern Mediterranean region are disproportionately dependent on cereal imports from Russia and Ukraine. Over 40% of Lebanon and Libya’s wheat comes from Ukraine, and Egypt is also heavily reliant.

Indeed, due to the war these imports are already being affected, so countries have had to turn elsewhere, and prices are already 10 times higher than they were 10 years ago.

Additionally, all our eyes are on the displacement of Ukrainians and the resulting migrant crisis, stated the expert, and this puts a considerable strain on both transit and recipient countries.

With reference to migration from other regions, the expert said that we “cannot discount the fact that migration will be affected by what is happening in Ukraine”.

The war is definitely a gamechanger for Europe’s security, said another expert.

Politicians are feeling the pressure from civil society on the migrant issue, and economists are trying to find ways out of the financial crisis.

“Energy experts are between a rock and a hard place,” he said, adding that it “took a month to show how fragile the world is”.

Vladimir Putin has managed what Western leaders failed to do, according to the speaker.

He has united European governments and enabled Europe to regain its geostrategic stability. The day before the event, ministers had approved the EU’s Strategic Compass, which takes the form of a “standalone decisive defence doctrine for Europe” and is “a cradle to a European army”.

“This will transfer Europe from being Russia’s hostage to being a self-standing entity,” stated the speaker.

The expert highlighted that 40% of energy used by EU member states comes from Russia.

Although this should not slow down the energy transition up to 2050, “at least the first half of this period cannot only be based on gas and nuclear”.

Currently Europe uses 400bcm of gas, and considering 40% comes from Russia, the Eastern Mediterranean is now “a pivotal factor for Europe’s energy security” where new gas sources appear to be prevalent.

Another expert mentioned how there have been many discussions about Europe’s strategic autonomy, but the steps taken so far “have been too modest – and not just on energy”.

According to her, the EU “hasn’t been able to follow up on nice documents”.

They can only move if they are united – but now they are.