Durban Platform deal postpones necessary global climate action to uncertain future
12/12/2011
There are positive and negative dimensions to the agreement reached in overtime at the Durban climate summit. The “good” news is that the climate train remains on track - the bad news is that the final destination is still global climate chaos. The Kyoto Protocol has been saved but the goal of limiting temperature increases to the 2 degrees Celsius target should most likely be shelved. Political “realism” has defeated societal urgency and necessity.
Of course, there are elements which can be seen as the glass half-full:
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The fact that the new emergent economic powers have finally agreed to talk about accepting real reduction targets in the future to deal with the carbon emission impact of their own economic growth;
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The second commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol, although still very insufficient in terms of reductions and politically weak by the absence of the world’s biggest emitters and key participants such as Japan, Russia, Canada not willing to extend their commitment;
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Progress, although vague and without real figures, on the Green Climate Fund and the scheme to pay poor countries for not cutting their forests (REDD+);
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The return of the European Union as a key compromise broker after having lost this leadership role in Copenhagen and Durban.
That said, compared to the positive elements of the “Durban Platform for Enhanced Action”, there are a lot of open questions and concerns which make it difficult to qualify this new agreement as “historic”:
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Is there no danger that between now and 2015, climate policy will be even less high on global policymakers’ agendas as the economic chaos continues or even intensifies? What are the odds that it will be easier in 2015 to agree a real and stronger action plan?
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Does this agreement give any certainty to business investors? Is it not more likely that the business will switch off and abandon its climate efforts?
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What about the IEA’s warning that by 2017 the world will have locked itself into a high-carbon energy future if there is no radical change in policies? Will the Durban deal really change anything for technological innovation?
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Scientists agree that carbon emissions will have to peak by 2020. Is that realistic with the roadmap defined in Durban?
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The Durban meeting recognised the huge “ambition gap” that exists between countries pledges for reductions and the real emission reduction needed to stick to the 2 degrees target. Will this carbon gap not increase considerably from now until we have a real legally binding climate deal?
All in all, the climate negotiations train remains on the tracks but it is very questionable whether it is going in the right direction. There is no guarantee whatsoever that these new Durban Platform talks will end in a new Being/New Delhi Protocol. Moreover, the climate crisis is only the tip of the unsustainability iceberg. The "perfect storm" of climate chaos, resource scarcity, energy insecurity and economic depression will most likely make the road to real effective global climate action more challenging and tricky in the future.
Further Reading:
By Willy De Backer
Head of the Greening Europe Forum