Friends of Europe's most prestigious Networking Cocktail and Debate, occuring together with the Centenary Celebration of the Bibliothèque Solvay.
Featuring:
Confirmed Friends of Europe's trustees include Jean Luc Dehaene, Vice-President of the Convention on the Future of Europe, Elmar Brok MEP, John Bruton, Daniel Janssen, Chairman of the Board of Directors, Solvay and Vicomte Etienne Davignon, Vice President of the Société Générale de Belgique and Friends of Europe's President .
~~~~~~~~~~~~ Summary of Debates ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Mike Gonzalez, Deputy Editor of the Wall Street Journal Europe, asked participants to "think large" in sketching their vision of Europe in 2020.
John Bruton, European Convention member and former Irish Prime Minister, said that by 2020 the European Union will have a population of about 500 million people and include Turkey. Governments will co-operate in an enlarged Council of Europe ensuring that there is "a form of political unity" stretching from Vladivostok to Greenland. The democratic complexion of the Union’s executive branch will be changed, with a president of the European Commission elected "directly by the people" and no longer selected by other branches of E.U. institutions. The election will have much in common with the already familiar American presidential model. Europeans will look back at the early 21st Century with the realisation that we struck "a bad balance" between our work lives and family lives. Re-calibrating this balance may have some negative effect on GDP but the benefits will boost more broadly measured concepts of human welfare. By 2020, concepts of national identity and loyalty to a single state will have "gone completely out of fashion." The new discourse will focus on multiple personal identities that are quite independent of national identities. Finally, Europe may have to have abandoned the motor car as the main mode of transport and the focus will be more on bettering the public transport infrastructure.
Elmar Brok, MEP and Chairman of the Committee on Foreign Affairs, predicted that the E.U. will increasingly look like a European Switzerland where, after 75 years of uninterrupted peace "a lot of private wealth inherited by our children will give us personal security." His vision is of cohabitation of languages and cultures amid an increasingly harmonious balance of the European institutions. This sustained peace will push the Second World War into ever more distant memory. By 2020, "I hope my children and grandchildren will not remember why this European Union was set up," said Brok. But complacency could develop. That runs the risk of heightening our vulnerability to external threats. "An E.U. of such a size cannot live on an island," warned Brok. Like Switzerland, the E.U. will have to take responsibility for trade, foreign affairs and defence. For peace to flourish, the E.U. will have to take a common responsibility in those spheres.
Jean-Luc Dehaene, European Convention Praesidium Vice Chairman and former Belgian Prime Minister, underlined how hard it was to say where matters in the E.U. would stand 20 years hence. But he expressed hopes that Europe would continue to spread its values beyond its current borders. Recalling the positive changes experienced by Greece, Ireland, Spain and Portugal since joining the Union, Dehaene predicted a "larger convergence and lifestyles and economies" between the current members and countries on the verge of joining the union. Striking a strong and clear pro-integrationist note, he called for stepped-up joint efforts in the areas of justice and internal affairs. That kind of co-operation is a pre-requisite for the E.U. to become a global actor, ready to "defend values in the world and to make a large contribution to global governance." But Dehaene warned that globalisation could have both positive and negative implications. This left Europe with a special duty to promote its own vision of global values: "Globalisation will only be positive if we organise it," he stated.
Mike Gonzalez suggested that two of the speakers had spoken "about Europe inwardly." He also noted how the U.S. statesman Henry Kissinger critiqued the E.U. for being beset by process rather than substance. He encouraged speakers to address Europe’s sometimes challenging relationships with key external powers like Russia, Turkey and USA.
John Bruton replied that it took the U.S. from 1787 to 1865 to sort out its internal relationships before it turned, in earnest, to a foreign role. Kissinger "started off in Europe," Bruton noted. But Kissinger’s "experience wasn’t perhaps all one would have wished," and that may have tainted the statesman’s views. Bruton said Turkey would take E.U. membership within 20 years. As to Russia and the E.U., their shared history obliges them to develop in tandem under the aegis of a pan-European institution. "That Russia is not part of Europe is unhistorical," said Bruton. But Russia is too large to become an E.U. member. The way forward is "to greatly enhance the role of the Council of Europe" of which Russia already is a member. The Council "would have to take on some of the characteristics of the E.U. in order to accommodate the Russian Federation" such as introducing majority voting on some issues. NATO, by 2020, probably will remain. But, by that time, the U.S. will have developed a network of treaty relations with Latin America and a number of Asian countries. The result? The U.S. "won’t lean quite as intensively toward Europe."
Elmar Brok underlined that Europe’s attitude toward Turkey’s E.U. candidacy shouldn’t be influenced by the strategic relationship between the U.S. and Turkey. Instead, relations with Turkey should wholly depend on Turkey’s performance in fulfilling the E.U.’s accession criteria. Membership is "not up to us, it’s up to Turkey." This would take some time. As to Russia, the country could develop into another version of the E.U. as it seeks a structure to keep its restive regions under a single flag. Whatever happens, "bridges with Russia" will be important. With the U.S., relations are likely to stagnate unless there's an E.U.-U.S. treaty. The transatlantic alliance will have to develop more formal characteristics. "The military relationship of the past isn’t good enough anymore," said Brok, who called for a "transatlantic marketplace" to enhance co-operation with the Americans.
Jean-Luc Dehaene took issue with a view expressed by Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi, that the vocation of Russia is to be part of the E.U. In fact, Russia’s vocation is to be global power in its right. It would be "looking for trouble" to have Russia in Europe. Consequently we should develop a special relationship with Russia, and to define a special treaty with the E.U.’s bordering countries. Dehaene also backed the idea that the E.U. strike a treaty with the Americans. And looking 20 years hence, both the E.U. and the U.S. are likely to join Russia and China in a revamped U.N. Security Council. Allied countries representing Asia and Latin America may also find themselves in such a forum.
Moderator Mike Gonzalez asked whether British and French membership of the Security Council would change in future, to which Jean-Luc Dehaene replied: "The U.K. and France think they are global actors, but they are not."
Giles Merritt, Friends of Europe Secretary General, asked if the EU could become a "global policemen." In other words, would Europe be telling the U.S. that certain countries, like Iraq for example, are in its own backyard and that the Americans should back off? John Bruton poured cold water on the idea, saying that unless Europe "starts to get its demographics right" it can’t be a military power. The problem, in part, is the decline in numbers of "native European peoples" – an issues that's getting scant attention, said Bruton. In these circumstances, talk of Europe’s military prowess is "completely unreal." Russia itself may not last as a major player for the same reasons. Population is dropping there, while the infrastructure of the country is rusting. The world’s only military power is the US, and Europe isn’t likely to join its ranks while Europeans age and become ever more cautious. "We’re already pretty cautious today," Bruton warned. "We are perhaps dreaming when we think in these terms." Elmar Brok suggested that the E.U. should measure global influence in terms other than military. After all, the E.U. gives three times as much foreign aid as the Americans. That too is a measure of international power and also is a means of heading off wars. Jean-Luc Dehaene put the emphasis on Europe’s leading role in environmental policy and poverty eradication. Europe needn’t be a policeman to carry weight. Leading by example in these areas meant Europe could have a "real impact and send a real message to the world."
Turning the spotlight on John Bruton, Mike Gonzalez asked about the potential pitfalls of harmonised tax strategy in the European Union. After all, wasn’t Ireland’s rapid advance in the 1990s due to its freedom to slash its own taxes to levels far below its neighbours?
Ireland’s vertiginous growth, said Bruton, wasn’t attributable to tax cuts that were introduced overnight. Instead, tax rates had been between zero and 10 percent for a quarter of a century, and business had therefore come to trust the sustainability of the Irish model: "We became an overnight success after 25 years of preparation." Above all, governments should aim for consistency in fiscal policy, advised Bruton. But imposing strictly "harmonised tax rates would be a great mistake." Bruton expressed frustration with those advocates of both harmonised taxes and subsidiarity. Holding both values is "hypocritical and insincere and of no substance." Mike Gonzalez asked Elmar Brok whether an E.U. that looked like Switzerland could help solve the tax riddle. Brok reiterated the importance of subsidiarity to counterbalance centralist forces. Brok’s view? There should be tax competition between member states.
Mike Gonzalez turned lastly to Jean-Luc Dehaene for clarification on his view of globalisation. The former Belgian premier said he advocated a broad view of globalisation that embraces social and environmental dimensions. "If your only rule of globalisation is competition, that is too general and that is not a sustainable world." In Europe, Dehaene backed varieties of tax harmonisation but with "some differences at the margins." A mature common market required greater harmonisation on all levels -- including taxation of capital flows. Levying direct taxes on all E.U. citizens could also be a future development for the funding of Europe’s institutions, now that E.U. member states had hit "the limits of financing through national budgets."